SUMMER  PREVIEW   -- 20 MAY  2007  

 

 

1.  REVIEW  OF  SPRING  2007 5.   THE  DROUGHT  AREAS
2.   SUMMER  2007  OVERALL 6.     La NINA   BASICS   for  SUMMER of 2007
3.   FORECAST  MAPS 7   LA NINA THREAT   FOR  2007
4.   THE   OVERALL  PATTERN  GOING INTO THE  SUMMER   2007 8   HURRICANE  SEASON  2007

 

Text  that is  in    BOLD  highlights important ideas or statements.   RED   BOLD  has been   so designated   because   it contains   CRITICAL ideas.

  
 

Throughout this  forecast      you will see   the  acronym    "CF" used.   The two   letters   "CF"     stands  for    "Consensus Forecast"    which is  term that I use   to describe  the general view or a summary of what most  PWSIP  (private weather  service  Information Services)      and / or    NWS forecasters are saying.  The CF is very important in determining how the seasonal trade in Energy and Agriculture markets will unfold as well the operational side of the weather biz.       For example… State DOTs will often significantly lower their Salt and Sand purchases if the CF is for a Mild winter in their areas.       The CF often consists of  

a) the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) …whose forecast carry a lot of weight...  
b) large well known Private Weather Service Information Provider (PWSIPs) and      
c) some well known Energy/ Ag forecasters.

 


 

REVIEW of   SPRING   2007  FORECAST
Click  on IMAGES  to see  FULL MAP

 

The  actual forecast    can be seen   HERE

As a general making seasonal forecasts for the intermediate seasons -- Autumn & Spring -- are always harder to make a seasonal forecasts when compared to Summer and Winter seasons. Still the WxRisk.com Spring forecast was a fairly good but as great as the forecast I made last Summer (2006).

MARCH 2006 as you can see the temperatures were quite warm over much of the CONUS with a small area of Paul normal temperatures over going on. My temperature forecast called for huge area of above normal temperatures over the heart western and central US but I did not have the above normal as far east --into the Midwest which is exactly what happened in reality. Precipitation wise I did OK over the Southwest states correctly forecasting the Drier than Normal conditions. But I did not pick up on the developing drought over the Southeastern states at all.

APRIL 2006 -- I correctly forecasted the large area of above normal temperatures over the Southwest and central Rockies but I had the above normal temperatures expanding into the Upper Plains and western Great Lakes which was clearly incorrect. I did had an area of Below Normal Temperatures over the Southeast which is not bad but the Below Normal temps I had on my April temperature forecast map did not reaching TX /OK which had a cool month nor did cover northeast was also had a cool April 2007. With regard to the rainfall I had a large area of Drier than Normal conditions over all the Plains and the Midwest which was clearly incorrect and I missed the southern drought again.

MAY 2007 -- my temperature forecast has pretty good  so far ... through 5/19. I did not have the area of above normal temperatures reaching all the way into the Ohio valley but in general the temperature forecast has been pretty good. The precipitation forecast for May 2007 was completely wrong.

 

      TEMPS  FORECAST ACTUAL PRECIP
 FORECAST
ACTUAL
MARCH  2007
APRIL  2007
MAY   2007

 

 

SUMMER  2007  OVERALL




The Summer of 2007  has a far greater chance than  " normal"   to have a significant weather problems over large portions of the CONUS as well as the return of significantly Above Normal Hurricane activity in MDR -- Main Development Region of the Tropics   (....Tropical Atlantic.... Southeast US Coast... Caribbean Basin and the Gulf of Mexico).   A careful study of the significant changes in the pattern over the last 30 days clearly shows or reveals   what will likely be the  main Summer pattern of 2007.

The overall Summer pattern is going to be determined by several important features.

 

  1. The large drought area which have developed over the Southwest states and much of the central and northern Rockies 

  2. A 2nd but very important drought area over the Deep South that is rapidly expanding and intensifying. This 2nd drought area has already expanded into the Tennessee Valley 

  3. A strong and active Pacific Jet stream which will be keeping the mean trough either right along the immediate coastal areas of western North America/ eastern Pacific or over the Pacific Northwest region of North America. 

  4. The QBO will continue to drop into the Negative numbers.... probably reaching -20 or greater during the Heart of the Hurricane season.

  5.  Unlike Last Season rainfall over Equatorial west Africa in MAY has been Normal to Above Normal so the severe Dust will not be nearly as bad this season when compared to what we saw in the 2006 Hurricane season.

  6.  In addition Wxrisk.com sees at least a 50% chance a moderate La Nina developing during the heart of the Summer and into the early autumn and a 25% of seeing the La Nina reaching STRONG threshold for several weeks

 

 

HURRICANE  SEASON   ---Unlike most private forecasting services as well as government agencies WxRisk.com in 2006 was one of the few well-known  PWSIP   (Private  weather information Service Providers)   that did  NOT go for  an Active Hurricane season. And as the 2006 season progressed...  that forecast never wavered.
 

  from  the 2006    Hurricane season forecast 

The Hurricane  season of  2006  will NOT be nearly  as bad  as  many forecasters are  forecasting. WxRisk    is calling for  13  named   Tropical  Cyclones...  and it could less than that IF   an El Nino  develops  by  AUGUST 2006.    There will be nothing   like the  severe Hurricane  activity  in the  Gulf .   WXRISK   also   strongly  disagrees with the  assertion  made by  some other  well known Private weather forecast services that  the  East coast   will see an increased chance of seeing   several  Land falling   Hurricane  or near Misses  in 2006.  In fact  WXRISK sees a late Summer   early  Autumn  pattern that  makes  such a  forecast  extremely unlikely. 

 

click on the  two links below  to see a  FULL   review of the    of  2006 Summer season forecast   and  the  2006  Hurricane   Season. http://wxrisk.com/Seasonalforcst/Summer2006/summer2006.htm

There were several specific reasons why I forecasted a hurricane season that had activity that was much below expectations....  

  1. The  lack of  Moisture  over  western and  southwest  Africa. Studies have shown that   Drier than Normal  Spring and early Summers     can often   lead to weaker than Normal   Tropical  waves coming off the  Africa coast  (called Cape Verde systems in the  weather biz) .

  2.  And  Drier than Normal Springs and early Summer  season often lead to  increased heavy Dust  events   that   literally   choke off and shut down any  tropical system in the  far eastern Atlantic .   

  3. Many of the Summer and Hurricane forecasts of 2006  were  issued   extremely  early .   These  early Summer forecasts   issued in APRIL of 2006   could not possibly work out  since the   premise    of  those forecasts   was based on 

    A)  the weak la Nina   would last into the Summer of 2006  when in fact  the La Nina  was already dying.     If the La Nina  of SPRING 2006 died      then we would have La Nada--  or Neutral Conditions  in the   Equatorial.

    B)   In Fact   an  El Nino     developed  in Late July and  August  of 2006.  Many forecasters    have since asserted   that the El Nino   developing  in JULY and  AUGUST of  2006   were a  surprise .... when in Fact   WXRISK.COM did  forecast   a El Nino    for the   2nd half of the Summer of 2006   ( El Nino  events   reduced  Hurricane  activity in the MDR while La Nina  event   enhance it) .

     

  4. The QBO   massive switch 2005  vs 2006.          The  3 most   destructive  and  active  months of any Hurricane season on record    was   AUG / SEPT/ OCT  2005.   In those months  the       AUGUST  of  2005   QBO value was the   strongest   Negative Value   AUG  value ever  recorded     (since 1950) and 3rd lowest of all time.    The  QBO value in  SEPT  2005 was the  lowest   Negative  QBO   value   EVER   as was   OCTOBER 2005.         Now in  AUG  2006  (+9.10)   the   QBO  was  35 points  HIGHER  than  AUG 2005 ....     In SEPT 2006  (+10.20)     the    QBO Value  was  37 points higher ....   and  in   OCT   2006   the   QBO  value  (+10.86)   was again  +40 Points  higher when compared to   OCT 2005  .     The point is that this massive  swing in the  QBO   was  NOT   supportive of the   forecast for a  Much above   Normal  activity Hurricane season for 2006 .

 

 
This time around WxRisk.com does see an INCREASED   probability  of  significantly More  active Hurricane season for 2007 . However where I disagree with the consensus forecasts  is the   subject matter   of which   regions of  the    US Coasts   are more likely to be hit.... ( Gulf / Florida / SE US coast / NE US CONUS).    I see a much reduced chance of  the central and eastern  Gulf  as well as the   SE Coast and the     Northeast  coast being hit   as well  a much reduced chance   of central and northern portions of the Texas coast being hit this year....  with an increased chance of areas from Brownsville /southern TX   southward  into northern  and central Mexico getting hit ...   Nor do I see    the  2007 Hurricane as  a  New England    year either...

 

 

 

 

 

 THE  FORECAST MAPS

 

JET STREAM MAPS
JUNE JULY AUGUST
  TEMPERATURE  MAPS
JUNE JULY AUGUST
RAINFALL   MAPS
JUNE JULY AUGUST

 

SUMMARY OF 2007 CONDITIONS.... as I mentioned above the  Summer 2007 forecast is based upon several concepts some which are Now in place and some which are STILL developing and thus pose a certain amount of uncertainty to this forecast.     For example I strongly suspect that the developing La Nina will reach the MODERATE threshold and it has a fair chance of reaching the STRONG criteria  late in the Summer  ( even if only for a weeks).   On the other hand if La Nina does not develop as forecasted then obviously it would greatly affect the Summer forecast.  The large  drought area which now exists over in the Southwest  into the  Great Basin and Rockies is a "SET"   feature    that is not going   change  much  this Summer  2007 .  Another   slight uncertainty is the developing drought area over the Deep South  .

In order to fall this narrative closely I need to set up basic reminders about Weather without getting too technical.


Also... the energy region MRO is a close match to the agricultural regions of the Plains & WCB. Likewise the western & central portions of the energy region RFC is equivalent to the ECB

 

THE   OVERALL  PATTERN  GOING INTO THE  SUMMER   2007



The mean pattern we have seen for MAY 2007 has been significantly different from what we saw in March and April. This image depicts the atmosphere across the northern hemisphere at the jet stream level on 8 APRIL 2007.

   We can see several important features typical of a mid- Spring pattern  -- the areas of dark BLUE  represent deep troughs and the Bright RED strong Ridges. As you can see there is a pretty deep trough over the Great Lakes and the Northeast last and no large and deep trough over the eastern Pacific south of the Gulf of Alaska. Not surprisingly this are pattern produced temperatures that were close to normal but also a pattern that was rather wet for much of the central and eastern CONUS.   This pattern  which produced a  wet  and cold APRIL for  the  central and eastern CONUS    was a  dry one for most of the Deep South  as most of the  weather   systems  passed by to the North. As  a result  the  dryness over the  deep South over the winter  worsen   significantly   in APRIL and MAY . 

APRIL  and   MAY  2007 have both  featured a persistent trough centered over the Pacific Northwest or in over eastern Pacific just off the coast of North America and a pretty strong Ridge over the Rockies.    One of the reasons WHY the Trough over the Pacific NW/ Eastern Pacific has been so active this Spring has been the large pool of Cold SSTs (sea surface temps) off the West coast of North America.   Let take a look at some of these   SSTA  maps.

15 APRIL 2007 ...   There is  large  area of  cold and very cold SSTs   in the   Eastern  Pacific... from the  Gulf of  Alaska  to off the  Baja California  coast  AND   note the large pool of  Cold water  off the  Northeast CONUS   coast .    Note the  cold water pools   seem to match up closely with the    dark BLUE  in the   Map  above .  

6 MAY  2007 -- if anything  the areas of  cold SSTs  in the  eastern Pacific  has  Increased -- in actual coverage and  intensity  and the cold water of the   Northeast CONUS  coast  has   held steady.

20 MAY   2007.  As you can see    there has been Little if any change  in the large pools of cold  SSTs in either  the Pacific  OR in the  northwest Atlantic (off the NE CONUS coast)

 

 

SSTAs    APRIL 15 SSTAs    MAY 6 SSTAs    MAY 20

Since the Jet stream starts in  early APRIL  is  still fairly far to the south... weather systems have  been tracking into the  Pacific NW   then  moving OVER  the top of the Ridge in the northern Rockies have been dropping down across the Upper Plains into the Great Lakes and Midwest and these systems have been producing significant rains over much of the Plains/ WCB- MRO regions.
 

  However as   you know   the  weather pattern over  North America  for MAY 2007 is significantly different from what we saw in  late March and  APRIL 2007.   WHY?   One of the reasons is that as you move into the Summer months the Jet stream of course is going to shift to the North as it always does. But this typical shift to the north actually allowed the drought over the Deep South to intensify over the last 30-45 days since there is now even less chance of seeing significant rains reaching into the Deep South that we saw in early in April.

As I stated above the development Drought areas - not just a few areas where it is drier than normal but persistent and long-lasting Drought -- can alter a Jet stream pattern much the same way as large areas of cold or warm sea surface temperatures can alter the pattern.

Here is the mean Jet stream pattern for 11 May 2007. I have highlighted the trough and Ridge positions over North America.
    Here is the May 15 drought monitor map. Again you can clearly know the large drought area over the Southwest the Great Basin and the Rockies and the second drought area over the Deep South.
   Now what I've done on this next map is shown where these drought areas would appear on the first map and as you can see the Jet stream appears to be matching the drought areas amazingly well.
 

 

        

   

Not surprisingly with this sorted of Jet stream pattern we have seen some pretty warm temperatures developing over much of the central US (Plains and  Midwest) ... and portions of the Rockies. This map shows a 30-day temperatures from April 18 - May 19  ... and this map shows the temperatures from May 1 to the 19th.



This sort of pattern   COULD  actually  be a    good one  for  those looking for  seasonal  temps  and  seasonal  rainfall   over the  Plains and  eastern  CONUS.  For example  Here is  the  drought    Map from   the Middle of MAY  2004  and as  you can see   in Mid MAY 2004  the   drought over the  western CONUS    was  very similar  to what  we  currently  have over the  WESTERN  CONUS.      That   western  US drought    of   the Spring and Summer 2004  did  NOT  impact the central and  eastern US.   On a seasonal scale  the ridge over the   Western US   supported a  deep trough over the  Midwest so while there were intervals of hot and dry weather across the central and eastern CONUS these intervals were all pretty typical of what one expects to see during the Summer months.  There were no sustained heat waves or droughts during the summer of 2004 over the central and eastern CONUS.  

 

But there is of course a BIG difference between the 2004 drought map and the one we see for the middle of May 2007. The critical difference is the expanding drought over the Deep South which in my opinion has already fundamentally alter the pattern. Without the developing drought developing over the Deep South the overall pattern would look something like this ... we would still have the drought over the Western CONUS and still the mean trough and eastern Pacific.

This map is essentially similar to what saw in the Summer of 2004. But as you can see the developing drought over the Deep South alters the pattern because instead of seeing the deep trough over the Midwest and Northeast as we saw in  the  Summer of 2004  -- which are provide strong cold front and consistent rains -- the drought areas over the  Deep South  in MAY  2007  is keeping the trough over the Great Lakes very shallow. 

This is why in my opinion we have seen a much drier overall pattern over the past 30 days east of the Mississippi River.  Without the developing drought area over the Deep South the is what the overall pattern would probably look like for the Summer of 2007....

   On the other hand  the    eastern  Pacific trough / WESTERN   CONUS  Drought area   supports   or  Teleconnects  to the   trough over the Upper Plains .... this   has allowed the very wet pattern of APRIL 2007  to continue over the central & Upper Plains  in much of  MAY 2007.  In this sense the persistent trough over the Plains and the Ridge over the eastern US are directly connected.


The effect of this  rainy pattern over the   Plains can be seen by the MAY 12 edition OF PALMER MOISTURE MAP. What is important to note are the 2 Dark GREEN areas ...one over the Plains from TX into eastern SD and western IA and the other over the Northeast... which also had a wet Spring season. The DRY areas can bee seen by the ORANGE and YELLOW areas.... over CALIF and the SW states into the Rockies and the 2nd area over the Deep South.

 



 THE FUTURE OF THE    DROUGHT AREAS  OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS  &  DEEP SOUTH?

However all this being said there is no guarantee   OR  even a reasonable amount of certainty that the drought conditions over particular area will hold or expand. There are numerous examples  of   drought areas shrinking during the Spring and Summer months.  We simply cannot look at a drought map and a sea surface temperature map and conclude that this is what the overall mean pattern is going to look like for the Summer of 2007

One of the ways that forecasters can follow the expansion of the drought Areas is the use the long-term and short-term drought trends indicator Maps. This product is produced by the folks at the Climate Prediction Center and it is a relatively new product and one which is not been used by most forecasters and forecasting services. However I find this to be particularly useful product in figuring out moisture and drought trends.

Here is the long-term drought command from 5 MAY 2007... AND 19 MAY 2007. These maps are pretty self explanatory. On the long-term drought indicator map of May 5 we can see the drought developing over the Deep South quite nicely as well as the dry conditions of the Southwest and Rockies. But is also very wet conditions over the Ohio valley ( read as ECB/ RFC) as well as the Northeast US.   And there is a second area of fairly wet conditions over the central lower Plains running from North Dakota and Minnesota down into Western Texas and New Mexico. If you are to compare these two maps you will see some minor changes over portions of the Plains bike increase in drought developing over northern Florida Southern Georgia and portions of Alabama.
 
Now lets take a look at the short-term drought indicator Blend maps. Not surprisingly we can see more impressive changes... which of course we should given that this is a short-term drought indicator which involves the trends in precipitation over the past several weeks.

The Wet  conditions over Western TX and NM increased  from 5 MAY to  19 MAY but the drought conditions over the northern Rockies in the Great Basin also worsened ...shifting   from the Yellow to the Red  and Brown shadings indicating a significant drying. Over the Plains the Dark blue and Greens that we see on May 5 over KS NEB eastern SD and western IA weakened some  which shows SOME drying over the central and Upper Plains   (this slow drying is fairly close to normal for the middle and end of MAY).   However the major changes  in the 5 MAY to 19 MAY   time frame   was over the Eastern US. First the drought over the Deep South has expanded dramatically and is turned ugly looking   with Dark Reds across the entire region!!!  This is an impressive change in last two weeks.   In addition the Midwest east of the Mississippi which on MAY 5 was close to normal  with regards to  recent Precipitation  as also increased significantly towards the Drier side with moderate drought conditions expanding into Kentucky and southeastern Ohio.   And lastly we can see that the wet conditions on 5 MAY in New England have significantly weakened

        

  


HYPOTHESIS ....  HOW THE  LARGE DROUGHT AREAS   WILL AFFECT THE   SUMMER  2007  PATTERN?

If   one  were to look at the     top  5  driest  SPRING  seasons over  the  SE CONUS   then  searched  the data  to see what the   following  Summer seasons were like... you would end up with these  two Maps.   You end  up with  DRY Midwest - Delta     Deep South   some drying over the  Plains   but also cooler than Normal   temperatures   over   the   Deep South and Midwest.  How can this   be? well typically  when there is  DRY  Spring  season over the  SE  CONUS  this   comes about  because the Jet stream  pattern  features a deep trough over the  Eastern US. This allows  HIGH pressure areas to  plunges  from the  Midwest into the  Gulf coast . This track of the   HIGH pressures areas  brings in cool  temps but also shuts off the  moisture  from the Gulf of Mexico

TOP 5  DRIEST   SPRING SEASONs  and the SUMMER THAT  FOLLOWED
RAINFALL   TEMPS

 

 However  for THIS  Summer the   large drought  area over the  southwest  Great Basin and Rockies   COMBINED with the   drought area over  the  Deep South  will ensure  that   we will NOT  see a cool  and dry  Summer in 2007.

  If  we  were to focus JUST of the BIG western CONUS  drought    and the   top driest    SPRING  seasons  -- MARCH  to MAT  then see what Those  Summers were like  again we get a  strong   HEAT signal

 

 

  La NINA   BASICS   for  SUMMER of 2007

 The potential development of La Nina event for the summer of 2007 as already been much talk about so I'm not going to go into a great deal in detail with regard to this feature. But I do have a few things to say on it. First you need to understand where and how the La Nina or El Niņo events are declared by CPC department pictures Center.

El Niņo  (warm water)  and La Nina (cold water)  events occur in a specific portion of the equatorial portion of the Pacific Ocean... this area is known as the ENSO regions and it can be seen here. As you can tell there are FOUR specific areas in the ENSO region.

REGION 1 and 2 is situated right along the Peru coast just SOUTH of the Equatorial.
REGION 3 is the Red box area along the Equator.
REGION 4 is the Yellow area which extends along the Equator out past the Dateline.
REGION 3.4 is area shown by the THICK BLACK LINE .

 

El Niņo and La Nina events are "born" develop intensify then weaken in the various sectors of the ENSO regions .

El Niņo and online Nina events are declared by CPC when they reach certain threshold criteria for a certain period of time. CPC will declare a El Niņo or La Nina event ONLY when the warm or cold SSTs are either +0.5 degrees Celsius above Normal / -0.5 degrees Celsius Below Normal for three consecutive months in ENSO region 3. 4. When that threshold is reached CPC officially declares that a El Niņo and La Nina event is underway.

Using ENSO region 3.4 works very well when you are dealing with El Niņo events but when you are dealing with La Nina events there is problem. Almost all of the moderate to strong La Nina events that have develop since 1950 how formed off the coast of Peru ... ENSO region 1.2. The cold SSTAs and have then spread westward towards ENSO region 3 and 4. Using the official criteria from CPC will often result in a very late call from them because they're criteria is based upon region 3.4. There have been many cases where the cold  SSTAs  have developed off the coast of Peru (ENSO region 1.2) for   several weeks if not a few months before the Cold SSTAs finally migrate into region 3.4 and then stays cold for at least 3 months!

As a result the forecasters and traders which are relying were counting on the official declaration of a La Nina event from CPC will often end up behind the curve since the La Nina event will often be underway for several weeks before CPC finally gets around to officially declaring the La Nina event is underway.

Also  you need to know that  there are TWO    primary  sources   for   getting the  latest data   that  meteorologists  use  for  SSTAs   in the    various   ENSO    regions.  MOST  forecasters and  forecast  services   use the   data  from CPC ... this is the LINK

However   the   Australians  also   provide  track  SSTA in the    ENSO  regions .... but for some reason   many  forecasts   dont know    about this source of data.  The  competing   sources of  data  can  be is   disagreement sometimes  but the  evidence is clear.  The   data from the  Aussies is far superior   to   data  from CPC  because  of the   data  cutoff.    You see BOTH  sources    issue the  latest  data  Monday Morning.   BUT   the   Data   from   CPC covers the period   from the    Previous  Friday  -- 8 days  before  the  date  up to  last Thursday.    So in other words  the  CPC  data   when it comes out Monday morning  does NOT include any data from  last   Friday or  Saturday.  The  Aussies   data when it is issued Monday morning   covers  the period  from    the previous Sunday to Saturday and therefore  has the latest data.



Taking a look at the latest surface temperature maps -- the ones I posted above --- we can clearly see the developing La Nina event right along the Equatorial Pacific.... note the very dark blues and purple color areas off the coast of Peru.

It is not simply a matter of stating that because ANY La Nina that develops you can therefore forecast with a reasonable degree of certainty what the conditions are going to be like over much of the central and eastern CONUS this Summer or the hurricane season is going to be like Atlantic Basin.

  However there is a  strong connection    between Moderate or  Strong  La Nina   events and   significantly  Hotter and  drier summer  ( possibly  drought conditions).  These maps     show the  Mean  temperatures and  Precipitation anomalies   in the summer JUNE   JULY   and AUGUST  based on  average of    12 Moderate and  strong  La Nina events.

These Maps speak for themselves....  In JUNE  Moderate and Strong La Nina   events    bring     near Normal  temps   but  Much Below   Normal   rainfall over the     Plains and  Midwest and  Above   Normal  rainfall over the   SE   states! In JULY  temps tend  to run  Above   Normal   over the Plains    and Midwest   and  its  very dry...   but  over the  SE states  precip is
still  slightly   Above Normal.

 

      

Of course   these  maps  are  the  MEAN  or   Averages of 12  Moderate / strong La Nina  seasons   The   SUMMER of  2007  will feature   two  large drought areas  so these images   have to be   adjusted to fit the current    Reality.

 

 

THE  LA NINA    THREAT   FOR 2007 

Over the past several weeks   there has  been a lot  of talk and   speculation about the  La Nina  Threat for the Summer of 2007.... The  opinions  have ranged   from   "its coming"...   to   "Its fading"   ... to  "it  has  stabilized"....  to  "its taking a long time to   develop..." 

Getting this    correct  is   HUGE  because   the    development of a Moderate / Strong  la Nina vs   Weak  La Nina  versus NO La Nina  has    huge implications.  As I mentioned  above   Part of the problem is     that some   of these private forecasts  are   focusing ONLY on  ENSO  region 3.4   which means  the La Nina    could  NOT possibly  be declared  before  AUG 2007    at the  earliest.     But as I have  shown  ( proven)    Most Moderate / strong La Nina   events develop  in   ENSO region  1.2  MONTHS  before the  cold water   reaches   Region 3.4.... thus   by the time CPC officially   declares  LA NINA   the event  could  have been underway for many weeks.

 

 Next keep in mind that there are  a lot of  climate models  that are used  in forecasting  El  Nino / La Nina events... but the best known of these 19  climate models  is the   CFS  (climate forecasting system).  The  good  thing about the CFS is that the  model is   daily  and  actually consists  of 20   "versions ".  The   good thing about the CFS  is NOT  that is a   more accurate     model  than these  other climate models   but that  forecasters   can see  the  TRENDS   of the model every  day.
 

The    chart  shows  the   most  recent  Climate  models and  their forecast for  SSTAs  in ENSO  region 3.4  as of  21 MAY.  Most of the  climate  models shows a  weak to Moderate  La Nina  event  BUT  these models  all start off  with a   temperatures  Anomaly  of   +0.2 degrees C  when in fact    ENSO  Region 3.4   was    at  -0.25   degrees C. In other words all of  the  climate  Models start with warm SSTS  in  ENSO region 3.4

 

      These next four maps are some recent runs of the CFS for the 2 BIG or important ENSO regions... Region 1.2 and Region 3.4. These images are pretty self explanatory but I did want a point out that while there is some variation in these runs from time to time ....since early April the CFS has been remarkably consistent showing a moderate to strong La Nina developing over both these regions during the heart of the Summer months.

There is some slight differences... for example the APRIL 2 edition of the CFS for region 1.2 showed a very strong La Nina developing by late in spring or early in the summer.... however the May 22 edition of the CFS is not quite as intense with the cold SSTAs in Region 1.2. On the other hand the graphs from April 2 CFS for Region 3.4 is actually quite similar to what we see with the CFS on the May 23 edition ... a moderate to borderline strong La Nina event that develops by July and lasts at least a few months taking us into the early autumn for months

CFS  MODELS
APRIL    2  2007  MAY  23  2007
REGION  1+2 REGION 3.4 REGION  1+2 REGION 3.4

  

 

Finally let me conclude that there besides the use of sometimes unreliable and somewhat speculative computer models to forecast El Niņo or La Nina events there is a source of data which is out there on Internet (for free) which can be used to provide almost real-time updates with regard to the ENSO regions.

Just as the Jet stream drives cold fronts and High-pressure and Low-pressure areas across the world research indicates that the subsurface temperatures from the ocean surface down to about 300 meters is often very important.... and can tell forecasters whether or not the surface Ocean water temperatures might be increasing or decreasing.

 

The important thing to note here is that the subsurface temperature profiles show that when large bubbles off cold water appeared or develop beneath the surface and propagated towards the surface in easterly direction--- towards PERU Coast / ENSO region 1.2 -- there were significant drops in the SSTA in the that region... and lesser drops in the SSTAs in ENSO region 3   ENSO region 4 and ENSO region 3.4
 

 

SUB SURFACE    TEMPS IN  THE ENSO REGIONS
MARCH 28 APRIL 8 MAY   4 MAY 20
HERE  WE  CAN SEE  A  LARGE  POOL OF    COLD  SSTAs   (BLUE  SHADING   BUILDING)   WAS  RISING  TOWARDS THE  PERU   COAST   (ENSO 1.2) . AT  THIS TIME   THE SSTs  IN THE  ENSO REGIONS  SHOWED  THEIR  FIRST   BIG DROPS OF THE  SPRING   DROP The   Large  Pool of    COLD  SSTAs   (BLUE  SHADING   BUILDING)    WEAKENED AND THE   DROP IN SSTAs  LEVELED  OFF  IN   EARLY  &  MID  APRIL    The   Large  Pool of    COLD  SSTAs   (BLUE  SHADING   BUILDING)    WAS  STEADY AND  THIS  ALLOWED   TEMPS IN   THE  VARIOUS ENSO REGIONS  TO HOLD STEADY    The   Large  Pool of    COLD  SSTAs   (BLUE  SHADING   BUILDING)    WAS  INCREASING ...IN SIZE  AND  DEPTH OF THE  COLD WATER.  

 

 

HURRICANE   SEASON   2007

 

Obviously a great deal is going to depend on whether the forecasters  are basing their hurricane forecast on the development of a Weak   Moderate or  Strong La Nina  event.   As I am sure you already know by now moderate or strong La Nina events greatly enhance hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin and suppress hurricane activity off the eastern Pacific Mexican coast.

Some of the hurricane forecast numbers that have come out from the government and from some of the private weather forecasters are beginning to sound a little like a game of one-up-mans- ship which is kind of like the problem we had last season.

While this Summer 2007 forecast was been prepared ... TPC / CPC released their new Hurricane 2007 forecast. All of these various forecasts sure do get a lot of Media attention and given the sensitivity to America's energy needs this is not a surprise.

Keep in mind that 98% of all La Nina hurricane seasons have averaged a least one week's worth of disruption in the Gulf of Mexico from production of Natural Gas and Oil with the average disruption in a typical La Nina Hurricane season is about 98 BBLS.

Here is the sea surface temperature map from the middle of May 2005. As you can see there was a large pool of one warm SSTAs located in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. When you compare that map to the current one for the know of May 2007 we see no such large pool warmer than normal SSTs in the Atlantic  Basin.

                                                        MAY 2005                                      MAY    2007

         



On the other hand the rainfall for the April over Southwest Africa has been pretty good.  Not great but certainly wetter than last year with the percentages running 25 to 50% above normal.    This is slightly wetter than normal rainfall is likely to reduce the development of large and powerful dust storms coming off the sw coast of Africa and interfering with development of Tropical Waves moving from the African coast to the Cape Verde Islands into the far Eastern Atlantic.

    


If we start from the premise of a La Nina developing late in the Spring or in the Summer.... there have only been FOUR La Nina events since 1950 that began in that time frame. 1995 and 1998 are two of the more famous events and often times these years get mentioned as possible hurricane analogs to the upcoming 2007 season.

However both of those seasons the QBO that were strongly positive and this year for the QBO over the late summer and early autumn will once again run strongly negative. For these reasons I cannot use the 1995 or 1988 hurricane seasons as a analog to the 2007 Hurricane season.

Instead I kind of like the la Nina Hurricane season of 1964 that is often over looked. Not only was a 1964 Moderate La Nina but the QBO was strongly negative in that season as well .

Interestingly the 1964 hurricane season featured several systems that developed in and around the Central North for a Georgia coast... was some of the storms coming across floor into the Gulf ... in a manner sort of which was similar to some tropical storm ANDRE back in the early portions of May 2007.

The one area that I do not see as a High threat is the central and central TX coastal -- Corpus Christi to Galveston Bay.

The reasoning is based on the idea that the largest drought area centered over the Southwest states ...the Great Basin and the Rockies is likely to favor a strong Ridge anchoring itself in or near the four Corners region of the Southwest. This sort of strong Ridge is probably going to extend out into Texas and as a result any sort of tropical storm or Hurricane which is tracking W or NW towards the central and northern Texas coast is going to be "deflected" or held back by the strong Ridge over the 4 corners / sw states region. As result any sort of Tropical cyclone which comes into the Central golf is likely to bend to the WSW or even SW and make a possible impact south of Brownsville Texas sparing the main natural gas platforms along the central and northern TX Gulf coast.

For the East Coast I see several possible landfall threats in and around the Southeast--- by that I mean from Cape Hatteras south to Jacksonville FL -- but I don't see a particularly favorable pattern for r hurricanes tracking up into New England. I see the mean trough holding over southeastern Canada which is close enough to New England to ensure Hurricanes would curve out to sea or perhaps just clipping southeastern New England (Cape Cod area).


My forecast calls for 15 Named storms of which10 will be hurricanes and 3 intense Hurricanes. IF the La Nina reaches the strong threshold criteria at any point during hurricane season months of August September October... you can raise those numbers to 18 12 and 6 respectively

 

 


REVIEW   of WINTER  FORECAST  2006-2007
This link will bring you to the winter forecast of 2005 --06.   The actual forecast can be seen HERE 
 

 

In the Winter of 2006 --07   WXRISK.COM   asserted    the following...

  1. The   was going to be colder and snowier than expected   by the  CF (consensus   Forecast) over the Midwest and Northeast   but NOT  colder and / or snowier winter than Normal for  most areas

  2. El Nino would NOT reach  the Moderate or Strong criteria  for sustained   period during the winter months... but  the El Nino might   have a short interval when the El Nino  technically    reach the "moderate   threshold"  for a few weeks.

  3.  However the second half of the winter in particular will see a decline in the strength and power of  this weak El Nino event. 

  4. The drought conditions  that developed  over  the  lower Plains and eastern Rockies  would end  in  the 2nd of the winter  as   "split jet stream pattern"    developed. 

  5. The first half the winter will feature a Above Normal precip  over the Pacific NW  and   warm   eastern US in the  half

  6. But right now I see the second half the winter as one that is more stormy and cold for the eastern half of the CONUS.