Now that we are in the "COLD weather months" I am restarting a forecast product I started last year. It does not take a rocket scientist to see that WEEKENDS have become very important to individuals and Businesses alike. Ask any meteorologist you can...either in the TV or radio ... or anyone in NWS.... and they will tell the weekend forecast is everything. You can nail all 5 days during the week with a perfect forecast ... but if you get the weekend forecast " wrong"... well you suck.
Starting every Sunday Night and each day... this forecast will be updated for ALL of VA as well as near by areas. The FOCUS will be on this coming FRIDAY SATURDAY and SUNDAY AND next WEEKEND as well. Now that being said let me explain a few important ideas.
The forecasts you read about to read HERE....
1 These forecasts are NOT in anyway connected to any TV station in VA or The Weather Channel (TWC) or NWS.
2. Therefore it follows that what you are about to read is not going to be the same as the forecast you see from your local TV station... NWS or TWC.
3. There are several reasons for this but primarily it is the fact that my focus over the last 12 years has a Energy and Grain meteorologist has to do with the forecast period from say 3 to day 30. As a result that is where my expertise is. That is not the case for TV meteorologists your local NWS meteorologists and those guys on the TWC.
4. Most of those extended forecast you see various weather web sites (such as TWC or Accu weather) that show a day 10 or day 12 or day 14 forecast on them ... are NOT really forecasts in the traditional sense. That temps/ precip forecast you are looking at for 10 days from now or 12 days from now are based on the model data from the GFS weather Model. In those web sites there is almost "human forecasting" of weather past Day 3!!! It is all GFS "plug and play" computer program generated temps and precip. (Think about it... you think TWC really has someone or some group of meteorologists forecasting temps and precip for over 2,000 locations world wide out to 15 days ???)
5. Mine forecast are NOT base only on the GFS and GFS MOS generated data. I have access to the European Model equivalent of MOS data.
4. As a result my forecast may initially seem to be in conflict with what you are going to read on those websites. I don't get paid the money I do to forecast the consensus if the consensus forecast is wrong.
5. If the data changes the forecast changes. I do NOT worry about "forecast continuity" nearly as much TV... NWS ... or TWC meteorologists do.
6. You should ALWAYS follow all NWS watches warnings and special weather statements.
Over the past few years there has been some call from some other private weather service information Providers (PWSIPs) to be able to issue Watches and Warnings in place of NWS. WXRISK.COM thinks that idea is dangerous and foolhardy and I fully support NWS being the ONLY source for ALL official Watches... Warnings ...and Climate Data.
NORMAL MAX / MIN
AN= ABOVE NORMAL temps 3 to 6 Degrees Above where they should
N=NORMAL temps with +/- 2 degrees of where the should be
BN= BELOW NORMAL temps 3 to 6 Degrees Below where they should