EXPLAINING   TO  WXRISK
VIRGINIA  2 WEEKEND  FORECAST... 

   

  Now that we are in the    "COLD  weather months"    I am restarting a forecast product I   started   last   year.  It does not  take a rocket scientist  to see that    WEEKENDS   have   become   very important   to individuals and   Businesses   alike.  Ask  any meteorologist  you can...either  in the TV    or radio ... or  anyone    in NWS....   and they will tell the weekend  forecast is everything.  You can nail  all 5  days   during the week  with a perfect  forecast ... but if you get the  weekend   forecast   " wrong"...   well you suck.    

Starting  every Sunday Night   and     each day...   this forecast   will be updated for ALL of  VA  as well as  near by areas.  The  FOCUS   will be on   this coming   FRIDAY   SATURDAY  and   SUNDAY AND  next  WEEKEND  as  well.  Now that being said let me  explain a   few     important  ideas. 

  The forecasts you read  about to read  HERE....  

 1   These forecasts are NOT in anyway connected to any TV station in VA or The Weather Channel (TWC) or NWS. 

2.  Therefore it follows   that  what you are  about to read   is not going to be the same as the forecast you see from your local TV station... NWS or TWC.

3. There are several reasons for this but primarily  it is the fact that my focus over the last 12 years has a Energy and Grain meteorologist has to do with the forecast period from say 3 to day 30.  As a result that is where my expertise is.  That is not the case for TV meteorologists your local NWS meteorologists and those guys on the TWC.

4.   Most of those  extended  forecast  you  see   various   weather  web sites  (such as  TWC or  Accu weather)   that   show  a   day 10    or  day 12 or   day 14   forecast on them ...  are NOT   really forecasts in the  traditional sense.   That    temps/ precip    forecast you are looking at for  10 days from now or  12 days from now    are based on the model   data  from the GFS  weather  Model.  In those  web sites   there is  almost   "human  forecasting"   of weather   past  Day 3!!!  It is   all   GFS  "plug and play"   computer   program generated   temps and precip.    (Think about it...  you  think TWC  really   has someone  or  some group of   meteorologists forecasting  temps  and precip for over 2,000  locations  world wide out to 15 days ???)  

5.  Mine   forecast are  NOT base  only on the GFS and GFS  MOS  generated   data.  I  have  access  to   the   European   Model   equivalent of  MOS  data. 

4.  As a result my forecast may initially seem to be in conflict with what you are going to read on those websites. I don't get paid the money I do to forecast the consensus if the consensus forecast is wrong.

5.  If the  data   changes  the forecast  changes. I do NOT worry about "forecast continuity"  nearly  as much    TV...  NWS ... or  TWC  meteorologists do. 

6. You   should ALWAYS   follow all NWS watches   warnings and special weather statements.  

   Over the past few years there has been some call from some other private   weather service information Providers (PWSIPs) to be able to issue Watches and Warnings in place of NWS.     WXRISK.COM thinks that  idea is dangerous and foolhardy and I fully support   NWS being the ONLY source for ALL official Watches... Warnings  ...and Climate Data.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 NORMAL  MAX / MIN
for  DEC  13

 

  MIN MAX
BRISTOL    
ROANOKE    
RICHMOND    
NORFOLK    
FRDRCKSBRG    
CHRLOTTSVLL    
WINCHESTER    
DULLES    
DC    
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AN=  ABOVE NORMAL   temps 3 to  6  Degrees  Above where they  should


 MAN=  MUCH  ABOVE NORMAL  temps   7   to 10  Degrees Above where they should be


 SAN= SUPER  ABOVE NORMAL   temps  11  or more Degrees Above where they should be 

 N=NORMAL  temps  with +/-  2 degrees of where the should be

 BN=  BELOW NORMAL   temps 3 to  6  Degrees Below where they  should

 
 MBN=  MUCH  ABOVE NORMAL  temps   7   to 10  Degrees Below where they should be


 SBN= SUPER  BELOW  NORMAL   temps  11  or more Degrees  Below where they should be